New: Lightstone begins tracking the formal Used vehicle market
Diesel-powered internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales reported to naamsa fell to 27% of market share in April 2026 - down from around 30% - as record fuel prices dragged demand down.
The spike in fuel prices follows the conflict in the Middle East, and has created pressure on inflation, with Q2 2026 expected to push closer to 4%, the highest level since 2024, and the upper limit of the Reserve Bank’s new band for monetary policy control.
In a related development, Lightstone Retail’s analysis of anonymised Tracker mobility data showed that South Africans travelled about 6% less per week in May than in February.
Light vehicle sales – and a shift in mix of fuel types
In May 2026, the retail petrol price in South Africa neared its all-time high from 2022, and if not for the temporary reduction in the fuel levy this would currently be more than R2/litre above the previous record high. Despite the government’s fuel levy relief, wholesale diesel prices in South Africa already hit record levels in May.
Quarterly average Inland Fuel Price versus new Light Vehicle Sales since 2023
The graph above tracked the quarterly average fuel price for Inland regions against new Light Vehicle sales (Passenger and Light Commercial combined) and showed the jump in fuel prices in Q2:2026 (April & May prices), and an expected dip in new vehicle sales. While the drop in sales would not be unusual - Q2 is traditionally the weakest quarter in the year because there are many public holidays – the mix of fuel types in the Light Vehicle market has shifted.
The Petrol-powered ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles hovered around the 65% market share for the last three years, dropped as low as 63% in Q2 2024, and climbed as high as 68% in Q4 2024 and Q4 2025.
Diesel-powered ICE vehicles, on the other hand, operated comfortably above the 30% mark for 2023 and most of 2024, dropped to 29% in Q4 2024, and oscillated around the 30% mark throughout 2025 and into 2026.
However, April sales data, as reported to naamsa, showed diesel vehicle sales declined to 27% market share, one of the lowest months on record for this segment of vehicle.
New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sales, on the other hand, broke through the 5% market share barrier in April, the same quarter that wholesale diesel price reached a record high.
The NEV category - comprising Traditional, Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid vehicles - grew gradually in recent years and gained momentum as additional models and brands entered the market.
After consistently comprising less than 3% market share prior to 2024, it broke through this ceiling in Q1 2024 and then moved straight to 4% in Q2 2024. After bouncing between these two markers from 2024 and into 2026, April saw these vehicles breach 5% market share for the first time in South Africa.
Quarterly Ave Inland Petrol Retail Price v Petrol & NEV share of new LV sales since 2023
Quarterly average Inland Diesel Wholesale Price versus Diesel & NEV share of new Light Vehicle sales since 2023
Inflationary pressure
The fuel price increase is likely to see a jump in inflation, and, as can be seen in the chart below, the expected inflation for Q2 2026 is already projected to be pushing closer to 4%, its highest level since 2024, and the upper limit of the Reserve Bank’s new band for monetary policy control.
Quarterly average Inland Fuel Price versus change in Headline CPI since 2023
Less time on the road
According to analysis of anonymised Tracker mobility data by Lightstone Retail, South African’s driving habits have shifted too, with the change in fuel prices at the heart of the conversation. Overall, it appeared South Africans drove 6% less on average over the course of a week in May than in February. The distance covered by Petrol-powered ICE vehicles was down 4%, Diesel-powered ICE vehicles were down 9%, and even Hybrid Electric Vehicles saw distances drop by 3%.
On the other end of the scale, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs, which generally have a range of between 70km and 100km using their electric engines) and full Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) saw weekly average commutes climb by 5%.
