Strongest start to new vehicle sales in 13 years

New: Lightstone begins tracking the formal Used vehicle market

New vehicle sales in South Africa continued their strong start in 2026, with naamsa reporting 209 838 units sold in the first four months, 12.5% higher than the same period in 2025 (186 599 units) and the strongest January-April performance since 2013 (217 296 units).

The performance of the Passenger market was just ahead of the overall market, as the four-month total (148 723) climbed 12.8% from last year, and it was also the highest since 2013 (149 453).

New vehicle sales in April (47 892 units) were 12.8% up on April 2025, according to naamsa, but 17.5% lower than March, typically due to the number of public holidays during April. New vehicle sales continued to benefit from competitive pricing and lower interest rates, although both may come under pressure if the conflict in the Middle East results in higher fuel prices and increased inflation.

Passenger vehicle sales climbed 13.7% year-on-year in April to 34 241 units, and Light Commercial Vehicles sales were 10.4% higher, reaching 11 035 units when compared with April 2025. Combined, this was the strongest April for Light Vehicle sales since 2013.

New vehicle sales: Jan 2024- April 2026

Dealer sales accounted for 87% of overall sales for the opening four months of 2026 reported by naamsa. Light Vehicle dealer sales comprised 86% of all Light Vehicle sales for the four months. The car rental industry accounted for 9.6% of new Passenger car sales in the January-April window (13.4% in 2025), and 11% in 2024.

South Africa’s economy appears to be managing the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, although the recent spike in fuel prices is likely to affect household spending and inflation in the coming months. Local GDP is expected to grow at 1.4% in 2026, after coming in at 1.1% in 2025.

January to April - Passenger and Light Commercial new vehicle sales

The Rand continues to show resilience against major global currencies and is projected to strengthen marginally further. Headline consumer inflation is expected to remain within the Reserve Bank’s new official 2% - 4% target range, although it is edging towards the upper boundary. The increased risk of higher inflation reduces the likelihood of further interest rate cuts this year.

We anticipate new vehicle sales for 2026 at around 629 200 units, of which 597 000 are expected to be Light Vehicles (Passenger and Light Commercial). Overall, growth in new vehicle sales is expected to end 2026 in the region of 5.3%, up from the March projection of 3.4%. While this would be below the almost 16% growth recorded in 2025, that performance produced the strongest annual sales figures since 2015, the last time domestic sales topped 600 000 units in a year.

New vehicle sales: 2021 – 2026

Market observations - bodyshape

The Crossover/SUV bodyshape (which includes the Chery Tiggo 4 Pro, Haval Jolion and Toyota Corolla Cross) was again the best-selling Light Vehicle (Passenger and LCV markets) bodyshape in South Africa, with 87 615 new units sold (90% were Dealer sales, and 6% through the Rental channel), making up 44% of all Light Vehicle sales in the first four months of 2026.

The Minibus/MPV (Passenger) category was the fastest-growing Light Vehicle bodyshape, with January-April sales rising 38% year-on-year to 7 590 units. Examples include the Hyundai Staria, Suzuki Ertiga and Toyota Rumion.

The second-best performing bodyshape was the Hatch (which includes Suzuki Swift, Toyota Starlet and VW Polo Vivo) with 47 761 units sold between January and April. Hatch shape sales made up 24% of the Light Vehicle market over the first four months of the year.

The second most improved bodyshape for year-on-year growth over the first four months of the year was the Above One-Ton SCab category (which includes the Isuzu D-Max, Mahindra Scorpio Pik-Up and Toyota Hilux). Sales in 2026 (17 599 units) were 20% higher than the equivalent window in 2025.

Light vehicle Bodyshapes - share of Light vehicle market (January to April: 2024-2026)

Hybrid and Electric vehicle sales

Year-on-year growth in new Hybrid & Electric Passenger vehicle sales (which includes Traditional Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles), as reported to naamsa, for January to April 2026 was up 62%, at 7 637 units, on 2025, which in turn had fallen 0.9% from 2024. The full Passenger Market share for these vehicles was 5.1% for the first four months of 2026.

The jump in this sub-segment’s performance was helped by the inclusion of BYD’s sales volumes in the naamsa data.

January to April 2024-2026: Hybrid and Electric vehicle share of Passenger sales

Traditional Hybrid vehicles contributed 54% of the reported sales in the sub-segment over the first four months of 2026, with Battery Electric vehicles making up 13% of sales and Plug-in Hybrid vehicles responsible for 33%.

Vehicle price inflation

New Light Vehicle price inflation in South Africa grew by 0.4% year-on-year in March 2026, reflecting 27 consecutive months where new vehicle price inflation came in below Headline CPI (as released by StatsSA – March = 3.1%). The March number was higher than the February 2026 year-on-year growth figure of 0.1%. On a monthly basis, March vehicle price inflation was 1% down on February, which in turn was 1.8% up on January.

Passenger vehicle annual inflation Index change - 2, 4 & 6 year-old vehicles

Used Passenger Vehicle inflation year-on-year for 2-year-old vehicles was -1.3% at the end of April (meaning that, on average, a 2-year-old Passenger car was retaining 1.3% less of its original value in April 2026 than a 2-year-old car was a year ago).

This was marginally lower than March (-1.2%), and a decline from April 2025 (also -1.2%). For 4-year-old vehicles, inflation was running at -2.1% year-on-year in April, down from March (-1.8%) and from -1.7% in April last year.

A 6-year-old Passenger vehicle was retaining 2.2% less of its value in April 2026 than in April 2025. This was a weakening from the March figure of -1.9%, and from April last year (-1.6%).

Used Light vehicle market

Using available data sources, Lightstone now estimates the size of South Africa’s formal Used Light Vehicle market, covering dealer-network B2C sales and excluding C2C transactions.

The Used Light Vehicle market over the first four months of 2026 (284 000 units) was similar to 2025 (283 000 units), which in turn was 16.4% up on 2024. This means that year-to-date in 2026, 1.7 used vehicles have been sold through local dealerships for every new vehicle sold. This was the lowest ratio seen for this window over the last five years.

January to April: 2022-2026 - Used Light Vehicle market compared to new dealer sales

January to April: 2022 - 2026 Light Vehicle sales - Ratio of Used to New

Toyota (25% market share) was South Africa’s best-selling Used brand, followed by Volkswagen with 17%. Interestingly, the Top 5 brands from the first four months of 2025 remained unchanged in 2026, with just Suzuki and Nissan trading places. The Top 5 makes accounted for a combined 69% market share in the first four months of the year.