Buoyant new vehicle market in SA hits early 2026 milestone

South Africa’s new vehicle market accelerated in 2026, and sales reported to naamsa for January and February hit 103 918 units, a sharp 9.8% jump from the 94 632 recorded over the same period in 2025.

It is the first time in a decade that cumulative sales broke through the 100 000 mark by the end of February, a level last seen in 2015 (104 613 units).

The Passenger segment tracked in line with the broader market’s strong start to the year, with sales for the first two months of 2026 at 75 145 units, up 9.8% year-on-year. This is the highest level recorded since 2013, when 77 348 units were sold over the same period.

Total new vehicle sales continued their upward momentum into February, with sales rising to 53 383 units. This is an increase of 11.2% compared with February 2025 and 5.6% higher than January’s total, according to naamsa. The sustained growth benefited from lower interest rates, although uncertainty around the war in the Middle East could drive up fuel prices and inflation, potentially putting pressure on interest rates.

Passenger Vehicle sales increased by 11.1% year-on-year in February to 37 500 units, while Light Commercial Vehicle sales climbed 11.8% to 13 238 units compared with the same month last year. Together, these gains resulted in the strongest February performance for the Light Vehicle market since 2013.

New vehicle sales: Jan 2024-Feb 2026

Dealership sales accounted for 84% of Light Vehicle sales for the opening two months of 2026 reported by naamsa. the car rental industry accounted for 12.8% of new Passenger car sales in the January to February window, a drop from the 17.1% share in the 2025 window and the 14.3% in 2024.

January to February - Passenger and Light Commercial new vehicle sales: YTD 2022-2026

Lightstone anticipates market growth in 2026 amid a generally supportive domestic macroeconomic environment but cautioned that the full implications of the war in the Middle East could alter expectations.

Local GDP is expected to grow at 1.5% in 2026, ahead of the 1.1% in 2025. The Rand remains resilient against major global currencies and is projected to strengthen slightly from 2025 levels, with headline inflation expected to stay within the Reserve Bank’s 2% - 4% target range, though closer to the upper boundary. However, the likelihood of further interest rate cuts this year is diminishing with the possibility of accelerating inflation.

At end February, anticipated new vehicle sales for 2026 were sitting at around 617 500 units, of which 585 500 were Light Vehicles (Passenger and Light Commercial).

Overall, growth in new vehicle sales was expected to end 2026 in the region of 3.4% (up on the November projection for 2026 of 2.1%). This was below the almost 16% growth in new vehicle sales witnessed in 2025, the strongest annual sales figures since 2015 and the last time domestic sales topped 600 000 units in a year.

New vehicle sales: 2021-2026

Market observations - bodyshape

The Crossover/SUV bodyshape (which includes the Chery Tiggo 4 Pro, Haval Jolion and Toyota Corolla Cross) remained the best-selling Light Vehicle (Passenger & LCV markets) bodyshape in South Africa, with 42 667 new units sold (90% were Dealer sales, and 6.5% reported through the Rental channel) in January and February, making up 43% of all Light Vehicle sales.

The Minibus/MPV (Passenger) category led Light Vehicle bodyshape growth, with January to February sales 64% up year-on-year to 4 328 units. Examples of vehicles in this category include the Hyundai Staria, the Suzuki Ertiga and the Toyota Rumion.

The second-best performing bodyshape in terms of volume was the Hatch (which includes Suzuki Swift, Toyota Starlet and VW Polo Vivo) with 25 139 units sold between January and February. Sales made up 25% of the Light Vehicle market over the first two months of the year.

The second most improved bodyshape for year-on-year growth over the first two months of 2025 was the Above One-Ton SCab category (which includes the Isuzu D-Max, Mahindra Scorpio Pik-Up and Toyota Hilux). Sales were 20% higher at 8 754 units than the equivalent window in 2025.

Light Vehicle bodyshapes - share of Light Vehicle market (January to February): 2024-2026

Hybrid and Electric vehicle sales

Year-on-year growth in new Hybrid and Electric Passenger vehicle sales (which includes Traditional Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles), as reported to naamsa, for January and February 2026 was up 7.4% at 2 350 units on 2025, which in turn had climbed 7% from 2024. The full Passenger market share for these vehicles was 3.1% for the first two months of 2026.

Non-reporters in this sub-segment were likely to have contributed an additional 1% market share to this portion of the market.

January to February - Hybrid and Electric Vehicle share of Passenger sales: 2022-2026

Traditional Hybrid vehicles contributed 67.6% of the reported sales in the sub-segment over the first two months of 2026, with Battery Electric vehicles making up 5.8% of sales and Plug-in Hybrid vehicles responsible for 26.6%.

Vehicle price inflation

New Light Vehicle price inflation, which rose just 0.6% year-on-year in January 2026, came in below Headline CPI (3.5% according to StatsSA) for the 25th consecutive month.

The January number was higher than the December 2025 year-on-year growth figure of 0.1%. On a monthly basis, January vehicle price inflation was 0.8% down in December, which in turn was 0.7% up in November.

Lightstone's New Light Vehicle Price Inflation vs Headline Consumer Price Inflation

Used Passenger Vehicle inflation year-on-year for 2-year-old vehicles was -1.1% at the end of February (meaning that, on average, a 2-year-old Passenger car was retaining 1.1% less of its original value in February 2026 than a 2-year-old car was a year ago). This is marginally lower than January (-1%), but an improvement over February 2025 (-1.5%).

For 4-year-old vehicles, inflation was running at -1.8% year-on-year in February, down from January (-1.6%) and the -2.1% in February last year. A 6-year-old Passenger vehicle was retaining 1.9% less of its value in February 2026 than in February 2025, which was a weakening from the January figure of -1.8%, and unchanged from February last year.