Nearly two decades after the 2008 financial crisis, South Africa's residential property market has yet to fully recover. After a slow recovery that stalled around 2016, sales dipped further during Covid, with only a brief post-pandemic rally showing early signs of fading.

Compared with selected global markets (the UK, US, and Australia) South Africa's recovery has been more sluggish, reflecting persistent economic, political, and affordability challenges.

This analysis takes a look at transaction volumes, the rising age of buyers, luxury market performance, provincial disparities, and how South Africa stacks up against international markets.

We excluded subsidised properties from our South Africa analysis, as their irregular introduction skews cyclical trends. Our focus was on single-property full-share transfers, compared with transactions involving only natural buyers. We define ownership by "natural persons" where the property is registered in the name of one or more individuals, as opposed to being registered in the name of a company or trust.

Property transaction volumes for the period 2000 - 2025



This graph above shows the gradual decline of buyers in both categories, and the downward trajectory of one mirrors the other, and both show growth in the years before 2008, followed by a crash. While recovery had been sluggish, its momentum was further hit by Covid and generally weak political and economic conditions.

While volumes have not recovered to pre-2008 levels nationally, there have been exceptions. The Western Cape leads in sales volume recovery, based on 2008 benchmarks. Most positive changes are from this province, with Limpopo also showing gains.

Sales volume relative to 2008 by province: 2000 - 2025



However, the situation is different when we look at the luxury market (Lightstone defines Luxury between R2M and R4M, and Super Luxury above R4m) in the three largest provinces, Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. The provinces all recorded above 2008 sales from 2012 to 2017, and again in 2021 and 2022.

Luxury residential market in the three largest provinces (2008-2024)




Buyers are getting older

Apart from flat or falling sales, buyers of residential properties in South Africa are getting older - or put another way, younger people are not buying properties as they did in the past. And the trend of buying houses later / first home ownership at older ages is not unique to South Africa and according to media reports, is a global phenomenon in many developed (and some developing) countries.

It's a trend that strongly correlates with affordability (housing costs, from the price of a home and living expenses vs income), saving capability (for a deposit), mortgage / loan terms and interest rates, and life course changes (later marriages, fewer children, more years in education, more debt and so on.) Economic uncertainty also plays its part.

Policies such as offering assistance to first time buyers, lower required deposits, more supply of affordable housing, and improving access to credit can help shift buying patterns - but even in markets with such policies, ages are still rising. This trend is not good news for a housing market, and even more so in a country such as South Africa with an increasing and mostly young population.

The graph below shows how the percentage of those over 60 has doubled over the 25 years, while those between 35-60 have increased from around 50% in 2000 to 70% in 2025, and buyers under 35 have dropped from around 45% in 2000 to just 30% in 2025.

Age of buyers: 2000 - 2025



The graphs below demonstrate just how the market has shifted - in 2000, under 35 buyers accounted for 80 000+ or 47% of transactions, but by 2024 this had fallen to 53 000 or 30%. The fall raises the question: where are younger people living now?





Anecdotal stories suggest more are renting, or living with parents or in informal premises, or young South Africans who travel abroad to work are staying away longer or not returning at all.

The graph below looks at the issue from another angle: It shows that if we take the 35-60 year old category as the benchmark, buyers under 35 were paying 12% less on their properties in 2000, and 20% less in 2025. Conversely, buyers over 60 spent just marginally more on their properties in 2000 compared to the 35-60 year old category, but in 2025 the premium is around 15%.

Premium paid by under 35s compared to over 60s: 2000 - 2025



Time on market

Finally, we looked at time on market for the same value bands and provinces as we did on sales recovery. The graph below shows lower median time on market in the Western Cape, evidence of higher demand and less supply in that province. Houses spend most days on market in KwaZulu-Natal, with Gauteng in-between.

Median time on market: 2024 - 2025



Interestingly, the Super Luxury house price bands in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal spend more time on market than the less expensive bands, while the trend is different in the Western Cape, where Mid and High value band houses spend longer on the market in that province than Luxury and Super Luxury properties.

Briefly comparing SA to the UK, Australia, USA

So, if the market in SA hasn't recovered to pre-2008 levels, how does it stack up against the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia?

  • Speed and size of recovery: Australia and many US markets recovered more strongly and more quickly (in nominal terms) than markets like South Africa and some UK regions once the worst of the crash had passed.
  • Inflation adjusted (real) growth often much less than nominal growth. In many countries, after stripping out inflation, gains are modest or even negative for certain periods or regions.
  • Affordability deterioration: This is a common theme across the markets. Buyers face higher house price to income ratios, more burden from mortgage costs or down payments, especially when interest rates rise.
  • Interest rates and lending regulations matter: Tightening credit (post crisis regulatory reforms), interest rate shifts (both direction and magnitude), central bank policy, have large effects on the market's health and speed of recovery.
  • Regional disparities are huge. Big capital cities (Sydney, London, etc.) tend to see more pronounced booms and more volatile swings. Rural or less economically active regions often lag.
  • Supply constraints and demand pressure (population growth, urbanization, migration) have played large roles in pushing up prices, especially in Australia, certain US coastal markets, the UK's South East, WC in SA etc.
  • Recent headwinds as of mid 2020s: rising interest rates (to combat inflation), economic uncertainty, cost of living pressures, supply chain and construction cost inflation are all contributing to slowing in growth or softening in many markets.