Analysis from Lightstone Retail's data reveals an important insight into mall access in South Africa: 46% of the lowest-income households do not have access to a mall within 5km of their homes. To ensure consistency, the study defined eligible centres as malls anchored by a grocery store. Based on this definition, the findings highlight a stark access gap for lower-income communities alongside a concentration of choice among affluent households.
"Consumer behaviour has shifted since Covid, and the data is telling a very clear story about proximity and everyday value," said Mohit Narotam, Managing Director of Lightstone Retail. "When almost half of the lowest-income households lack a grocery-anchored mall within 5km, it changes how and where people shop. Businesses that read this signal correctly can re-shape format, tenant mix, and service models to meet real-world access constraints."
By contrast, higher-income households are well served by malls: more than 70% of the highest-income group have access to at least 11 grocery-anchored malls within 5km, and 95% have at least one. The imbalance is even sharper for large-format centres: less than 2% of the lowest-income households live within 5km of a super-regional mall (80 000sqm+), compared with 40% of the highest-income households. While investment in large malls tracks high economic activity, the access gap points to untapped demand closer to lower income households.
Lightstone acknowledges that this challenge is not uniform. In some cases, low-income households are spread out in non-dense pockets, making new mall investment difficult to justify. Yet there are also many areas where population density is high enough to support viable new formats.
In addition, even where local malls do exist, lower-income consumers often allocate only a portion of their spend locally, while substantial portions flow elsewhere. Analysis clearly highlights the chicken-and-egg aspect to this market - generally not well served locally, the market is forced into out-of-area shopping. As different services and brands start better serving the market locally this behaviour will shift. These are dense markets, with significant spend potential - more than enough to sustain stores if the node is generally well served enough to encourage in-area spending.
The solution is likely to be driven by the right mix of tenants in new shopping formats in the local vicinity with well thought through collaborations across retailers to make this work. "This is a product and format innovation brief hiding in plain sight," said Tamaryn Shalom, Head of Product & Innovation at Lightstone Retail. "Retailers can explore right-sized convenience options, price-tiered ranges and last-mile services that bring essentials within reach for lower-income shoppers as well as figuring out which complimentary services make a local offering viable. Whether those needs are currently met by informal outlets or not, there is room for formal retail to design for access first, then compete on value. The opportunity is to meet people where they live, not ask them to travel further or pay more.
Number of shopping centres with grocery stores within 5km of South African households by income category
