Urbanisation is a continuing feature of South Africa’s property landscape, and Lightstone’s analysis of data in the ten years from 2013 to 2023 suggests subtle shifts in population, where new housing stock is being registered with the Deeds Office, and in what price bands.
But first, what does the data reveal about the pace of urbanisation, even over such a short period?
Population shifts
South Africa’s population has grown from just under 54m in 2013 to nearly 62m in 2023 according to Lightstone’s estimates which use the 2011 Census as the baseline. The country’s urban population has grown by 15.3% from 34m to 39m, and the rural population has grown by 9.6% from 17.5m to 19m in the same period.
The most significant growth in percentage terms, though, has taken place in the areas adjacent to urban centres – a 46.2% jump from 2.4m to 3.5m people. This translates into a shift from 4.4% to 5.7% of the total population living in areas adjacent to urban centres. Correspondingly, the rural population has dropped from 33.3% to 31%, while the urban percentage is unchanged at 63%.
The Western Cape urban areas recorded the most population growth in percentage terms (22%) in the years 2013-2023, while Limpopo and Gauteng lead the way (106% and 105%) in growth around urban centres. The Free State and North West recorded net rural area losses.
But in terms of numbers, it’s Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Gauteng which recorded the greatest numbers of people moving from rural areas to areas adjacent to urban boundaries. The City of Cape Town is the only municipality in the Western Cape to appear in the top 20.
Population shift: from rural to areas adjacent to urban
Which cities have recorded most new property registrations?
It’s the usual suspects – with Lesedi the outlier
The City of Cape Town has grown the most since 2019, with 57 250 new properties registered at the Deeds Office. Four of the top six cities gaining most new properties, though, were in Gauteng, with the City of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, the City of Tshwane, and Lesedi joined by KwaZulu-Natal’s eThekwini in the top six. Lesedi, south-east of Johannesburg, was the quickest growing in percentage terms. The local municipality has worked closely with the Gauteng Department of Human Settlements to provide land and infrastructure for housing and has delivered more than 11 000 houses and formalised 943 informal stands. Despite the progress, the housing backlog remains high because of continuous migration into the area.
Highest volume change
While volume changes to stock inevitably come from the country’s major metros, Lesedi aside, the percentage growth (new stock as a percentage increase on old stock) (see table below) since 2019 tells a different story. Here, it’s one of a greater proportion of homes being registered in smaller towns, and mostly in the lower price ranges, other than the standout semigration destinations.
uMshwati in KwaZulu-Natal, about 120km northwest of Durban, leads the way with a 57% jump, followed by Umzimvubu in the Eastern Cape (55%), Nquthu in KwaZulu-Natal (43%) and Lesedi, southeast of Joburg in Gauteng (40%), where Heidelberg is the seat of the municipality.
While the average value of new stock in these municipalities ranges from R144 000 in uMshwathi to R600 000 in Nquthu, Drakenstein in the Western Cape leads the way in terms of higher valued new stock properties. Drakenstein’s municipal seat is Paarl, and stock volume in this Cape Winelands’ municipality has increased by 13% since 2019, and the average value of new stock added is R2.1m.
Other municipalities at the higher end include KwaDukuza in KwaZulu-Natal (11% increase, average value of new stock R2.7m) and Maruleng in Limpopo (11% increase, average value of new stock R3.7m). KwaDukuza, including Ballito, is in the hilly north coast of the province, and was previously known as Stanger, while Maruleng’s municipal seat is Hoedspruit, gateway to the Kruger National Park and many other private game reserves.
Madibeng in North West, a platinum mining hub which includes Brits and the popular tourist area of Hartbeesfontein, has seen stock increase by 10%, and at levels nearing R1m.
Highest % change in stock volume (new stock as a % increase on old stock)
The table below breaks down stock registered in four price bands since 2019. Municipalities in the big three provinces – Gauteng and Western Cape dominate the top four places in every category, with KwaZulu-Natal coming in at fifth in three of the categories. Western Cape is overweighted in the higher price bands, while the likes of Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Free State appear in the lower price bands.
The City of Cape Town has registered the greatest number of new properties in three bands – under R500k, R1m-R3m and over R3m, while it registered the third most in the R500k-R1m category. Gauteng’s Ekurhuleni was tops in the R500k-R1m category, while the City of Johannesburg was second in all categories.
The third largest number of properties under R500k were registered in Lesedi, while Manguang in the Free State and the City of Matlosana (Klerksdorp is the municipal seat) in North West follow Erkuhuleni in this category.
In the R500k-R1m price band, Emalahlenli in Mpumalanga and Polokwane in Limpopo follow eThekweni.
When it comes to new stock valued at more than R3m, Western Cape towns account for nine of the top 20, most of which would be the destinations semigrants would be moving to. Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal each accounted for three.
